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The COVID-19 Modeling toolbox provides CHIME Model v1.1.5 and COVID-19Surge (CDC) tools for ArcGIS Pro 2.3 and later to assist hospitals, cities and regions with intervention and resource planning during the COVID-19 pandemic. A brief summary of the item is not available. Add a brief summary about the item.

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Item created: Apr 3, 2020 Item updated: May 21, 2020 Number of downloads: 8,426

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Description

Please note, the updated version of this toolbox is now available for download on this page. The COVID-19-Modeling-v1.zip file contains version 5 of the toolbox with updated documentation. 

Version 5 of the toolbox updates the CHIME Model v1.1.5 tool. The COVID-19Surge (CDC) model is unchanged in this version.


CHIME Model v1.1.5 Tool
Version 4 - Updated 11 MAY 2020

An implementation of Penn Medicine’s COVID-19 Hospital Impact Model for Epidemics (CHIME) for use in ArcGIS Pro 2.3 or later. This tool leverages SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) modeling to assist hospitals, cities, and regions with capacity planning around COVID-19 by providing estimates of daily new admissions and current inpatient hospitalizations (census), ICU admissions, and patients requiring ventilation. 

Version 4 of this tool is based on CHIME v1.1.5 (2020-05-07). Learn more about how CHIME works.

Version 4 contains the following updates:

  • Updated the CHIME tool from CHIME v1.1.2 to CHIME v1.1.5.
  • Added a new parameter called Date of Social Distancing Measures Effect to specify the date when social distancing measures started showing their effects.
  • Added a new parameter called Recovery to specify the number of recovered cases at the start of the model.


COVID-19Surge (CDC) Tool
Version 1 - Released 04 MAY 2020

An implementation of Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) COVID-19Surge for use in ArcGIS Pro 2.3 or later. This tool leverages SIICR (Susceptible, Infected, Infectious, Convalescing, Recovered) modeling to assist hospitals, cities, and regions with capacity planning around COVID-19 by providing estimates of daily new admissions and current inpatient hospitalizations (census), ICU admissions, and patients requiring ventilation based on the extent to which mitigation strategies such as social distancing or shelter-in-place recommendations are implemented. 

This tool is based on COVID-19Surge. Learn more about how COVID-19Surge works.

Potential Applications

COVID-19 Models
The illustration above depicts the outputs of the COVID-19Surge (CDC) tool of the COVID-19 Modeling toolbox.

  • A hospital systems administrator needs a simple model to project the number of patients the hospitals in the network will need to accommodate in the next 90 days due to COVID-19. You know the population served by each hospital, the date and level of current social distancing, the number of people who have recovered, and the number of patients that are currently hospitalized with COVID-19 in each facility. Using your hospital point layer, you run the CHIME Model v1.1.5 tool.

  • An aid agency wants to estimate where and when resources will be required in the counties you serve. You know the population and number of COVID-19 cases today and 14 days ago in each county. You run the COVID-19Surge (CDC) tool using your county polygon data, introducing an Intervention Policy and New Infections Per Case (R0) driven by fields to account for differences in anticipated social distancing policies and effectiveness between counties.

  • A county wants to understand how the lessening or removal of interventions may impact hospital bed availability within the county. You run the CHIME Model v1.1.5 and COVID-19Surge (CDC) tool, checking Add Additional Web App Fields in Summary in both tools. You display the published results from each tool in the Capacity Analysis configurable app so estimates can be compared between models.

This toolbox requires any license of ArcGIS Pro 2.3 or higher in order to run. Steps for upgrading ArcGIS Pro can be found here.
For questions, comments and support, please visit our COVID-19 GeoNet community.

An in-depth description of the item is not available.

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Copyright (c) 2020 The Trustees of the University of Pennsylvania
This work is licensed under the Esri Master License Agreement.
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No special restrictions or limitations on using the item's content have been provided.

Comments (17)

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l_buie Item Owner commented 5 years ago Delete Reply

Hi bozorgp - using version 3 of the tool (updated 17th April), the "Add Additional Web App Fields in Summary" will appear as the final parameter in the tool (under Additional Output Variable(s) in Additional Outputs for Visualization) only once you enter the path to the Summary Output Feature Class. It will not appear if the Summary Output Feature Class is a shapefile - it must be a feature class e.g. C:\YourPath\YourGeodatabase.gdb\SummaryOutput.

bozorgp Item Owner commented 5 years ago Delete Reply

There is no "Add Additional Web App Fields in Summary" option in the tool as it is documented.

l_buie Item Owner commented 5 years ago Delete Reply

Hi samechap_IU, unfortunately due to functionality changes between ArcGIS Pro 2.2 and 2.3 including with charting and dates, we can only provide compatibility with 2.3 onward. This tool is based on Penn Medicine's CHIME model, so as you can't upgrade you could consider running the model directly from their website at https://penn-chime.phl.io/

samechap_IU Item Owner commented 5 years ago Delete Reply

For those of us not in a capacity to update our software, what kind of timeline are we looking at for getting this model backdated? This model would be wonderful to use and any help our insight would be much appreciated. I am running ArcPro 2.2.1.

l_buie Item Owner commented 5 years ago Delete Reply

Hi AgusSantoso1 are you running the tool with multiple points or polygons in your Input Feature Class? If so, the chart may be showing the total accumulated susceptible, infected and recovered from all of your points or polygons. Can you try selecting a single feature and filtering the chart by this selection to check that the numbers do not exceed population for individual features? The Chart Outputs section of the documentation gives more details on how to do this.

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          COVID-19, CHIME, Coronavirus, COVID-19Surge

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