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A multidimensional imagery layer providing 47 climate thresholds for the United States from the LOCA downscaled CMIP5 models. This layer presents the low emissions scenario (RCP 4.5) for 2036-2065. A brief summary of the item is not available. Add a brief summary about the item.
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Item created: Jun 13, 2022 Item updated: May 15, 2024 View count: 12,812
Description
The US Global Change Research Program sponsors the semi-annual National Climate Assessment, which is the authoritative analysis of climate change and its potential impacts in the United States. The 4th National Climate Assessment (NCA4), issued in 2018, used high resolution, downscaled LOCA climate data for many of its national and regional analyses. The LOCA downscaling was applied to multi-model mean weighted averages, using the following 32 CMIP5 model ensemble:
ACCESS1-0, ACCESS1-3, bcc-csm1-1, bcc-csm1-1-m, CanESM2, CCSM4, CESM1-BGC, CESM1-CAM5, CMCC-CM, CMCC-CMS, CNRM-CM5, CSIRO-Mk3-6-0, EC EARTH, FGOALS-g2, GFDL-CM3, GFDL-ESM2G, GFDL-ESM2M, GISS-E2-H-p1, GISS-E2-R-p1, HadGEM2-AO, HadGEM2-CC, HadGEM2-ES, inmcm4, IPSL-CM5A-LR, IPSL-CM5A-MR, MIROC5, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, MIROC-ESM, MPI-ESM-LR, MPI-ESM-MR, MRI-CGCM3, NorESM1-M.
All of the LOCA variables used in NCA4 are presented here. Many are thresholded to provide 47 actionable statistics, like days with precipitation greater than 3", length of the growing season, or days above 90 degrees F.
Time Ranges
Statistics for each variables were calculated over a 30-year period. Four different time ranges are provided:
- Historical: 1976-2005
- Early-Century: 2016-2045
- Mid-Century: 2036-2065
- Late-Century: 2070-2099
Climate Scenarios
Climate models use estimates of greenhouse gas concentrations to predict overall change. These difference scenarios are called the Relative Concentration Pathways. Two different RCPs are presented here: RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The number indicates the amount of radiative forcing(watts per meter square) associated with the greenhouse gas concentration scenario in the year 2100 (higher forcing = greater warming). It is unclear which scenario will be the most likely, but RCP 4.5 aligns with the international targets of the COP-26 agreement, while RCP 8.5 is aligns with a more "business as usual" approach.
Detailed documentation and the original data from USGCRP, processed by NOAA's National Climate Assessment Technical Support Unit at the North Carolina Institute for Climate Studies, can be accessed from the NCA Atlas.
Variable Definitions
- Cooling Degree Days: Cooling degree days (annual cumulative number of degrees by which the daily average temperature is greater than 65°F) [degree days (degF)]
- Consecutive Dry Days: Annual maximum number of consecutive dry days (days with total precipitation less than 0.01 inches)
- Consecutive Dry Days Jan Jul Aug: Summer maximum number of consecutive dry days (days with total precipitation less than 0.01 inches in June, July, and August)
- Consecutive Wet Days: Annual maximum number of consecutive wet days (days with total precipitation greater than or equal to 0.01 inches)
- First Freeze Day: Date of the first fall freeze (annual first occurrence of a minimum temperature at or below 32degF in the fall)
- Growing Degree Days: Growing degree days, base 50 (annual cumulative number of degrees by which the daily average temperature is greater than 50°F) [degree days (degF)]
- Growing Degree Days Modified: Modified growing degree days, base 50 (annual cumulative number of degrees by which the daily average temperature is greater than 50°F; before calculating the daily average temperatures, daily maximum temperatures above 86°F and daily minimum temperatures below 50°F are set to those values) [degree days (degF)]
- growing-season: Length of the growing (frost-free) season (the number of days between the last occurrence of a minimum temperature at or below 32degF in the spring and the first occurrence of a minimum temperature at or below 32degF in the fall)
- Growing Season 28F: Length of the growing season, 28°F threshold (the number of days between the last occurrence of a minimum temperature at or below 28°F in the spring and the first occurrence of a minimum temperature at or below 28°F in the fall)
- Growing Season 41F: Length of the growing season, 41°F threshold (the number of days between the last occurrence of a minimum temperature at or below 41°F in the spring and the first occurrence of a minimum temperature at or below 41°F in the fall)
- Heating Degree Days: Heating degree days (annual cumulative number of degrees by which the daily average temperature is less than 65°F) [degree days (degF)]
- Last Freeze Day: Date of the last spring freeze (annual last occurrence of a minimum temperature at or below 32degF in the spring)
- Precip Above 99th pctl: Annual total precipitation for all days exceeding the 99th percentile, calculated with reference to 1976-2005 [inches]
- Precip Annual Total: Annual total precipitation [inches]
- Precip Days Above 99th pctl: Annual number of days with precipitation exceeding the 99th percentile, calculated with reference to 1976-2005 [inches]
- Precip 1in: Annual number of days with total precipitation greater than 1 inch
- Precip 2in: Annual number of days with total precipitation greater than 2 inches
- Precip 3in: Annual number of days with total precipitation greater than 3 inches
- Precip 4in: Annual number of days with total precipitation greater than 4 inches
- Precip Max 1 Day: Annual highest precipitation total for a single day [inches]
- Precip Max 5 Day: Annual highest precipitation total over a 5-day period [inches]
- Daily Avg Temperature: Daily average temperature [degF]
- Daily Max Temperature: Daily maximum temperature [degF]
- Temp Max Days Above 99th pctl: Annual number of days with maximum temperature greater than the 99th percentile, calculated with reference to 1976-2005
- Temp Max Days Below 1st pctl: Annual number of days with maximum temperature lower than the 1st percentile, calculated with reference to 1976-2005
- Days Above 100F: Annual number of days with a maximum temperature greater than 100degF
- Days Above 105F: Annual number of days with a maximum temperature greater than 105degF
- Days Above 110F: Annual number of days with a maximum temperature greater than 110degF
- Days Above 115F: Annual number of days with a maximum temperature greater than 115degF
- Temp Max 1 Day: Annual single highest maximum temperature [degF]
- Days Above 32F: Annual number of icing days (days with a maximum temperature less than 32degF)
- Temp Max 5 Day: Annual highest maximum temperature averaged over a 5-day period [degF]
- Days Above 86F: Annual number of days with a maximum temperature greater than 86degF
- Days Above 90F: Annual number of days with a maximum temperature greater than 90degF
- Days Above 95F: Annual number of days with a maximum temperature greater than 95degF
- Temp Min: Daily minimum temperature [degF]
- Temp Min Days Above 75F: Annual number of days with a minimum temperature greater than 75degF
- Temp Min Days Above 80F: Annual number of days with a minimum temperature greater than 80degF
- Temp Min Days Above 85F: Annual number of days with a minimum temperature greater than 85degF
- Temp Min Days Above 90F: Annual number of days with a minimum temperature greater than 90degF
- Temp Min Days Above 99th pctl: Annual number of days with minimum temperature greater than the 99th percentile, calculated with reference to 1976-2005
- Temp Min Days Below 1st pctl: Annual number of days with minimum temperature lower than the 1st percentile, calculated with reference to 1976-2005
- Temp Min Days Below 28F: Annual number of days with a minimum temperature less than 28degF
- Temp Min Max 5 Day: Annual highest minimum temperature averaged over a 5-day period [degF]
- Temp Min 1 Day: Annual single lowest minimum temperature [degF]
- Temp Min 32F: Annual number of frost days (days with a minimum temperature less than 32degF)
- Temp Min 5 Day: Annual lowest minimum temperature averaged over a 5-day period [degF]
For For freeze-related variables:
The first fall freeze is defined as the date of the first occurrence of 32degF or lower in the nine months starting midnight August 1. Grid points with more than 10 of the 30 years not experiencing an occurrence of 32degF or lower are excluded from the analysis.
No freeze occurrence, value = 999
The last spring freeze is defined as the date of the last occurrence of 32degF or lower in the nine months prior to midnight August 1. Grid points with more than 10 of the 30 years not experiencing an occurrence of 32degF or lower are excluded from the analysis.
No freeze occurrence, value = 999
The growing season is defined as the number of days between the last occurrence of 28degF/32degF/41degF or lower in the nine months prior to midnight August 1 and the first occurrence of 28degF/32degF/41degF or lower in the nine months starting August 1. Grid points with more than 10 of the 30 years not experiencing an occurrence of 28degF/32degF/41degF or lower are excluded from the analysis.
No freeze occurrence, value = 999
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This work is licensed under a Creative Commons by Attribution (CC BY 4.0) license. See Credits and Map for Attribution.
No special restrictions or limitations on using the item's content have been provided.
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Dashboard views: Desktop
Source: Image Service
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Dependent items in the recycle bin
Applicable: 2d
Size: 66.651 MB
ID: d892d5daf77c46d58904c4d71d60388f
Image Count: 1
Image Properties
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Using tiles from a cache
Dynamically from data
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Categories
Climate ModelsDroughtFloodingExtreme HeatWildfire
Tags
climate, climate change, LOCA, CMIP5, temperature, precipitation, heat, flood, drought, NOAA, model
Credits (Attribution)
No acknowledgements.USGCRP, NOAA/TSU, Esri
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Comments (5)
Hi, is there an issue with the StdTime value for some of these multidimensional rasters? I'm only seeing 1990-01-01 when I try to subset both this one and the RCP 4.5 mid-century raster in Pro and in ArcGIS Online, although the RCP 4.5 late-century version has an appropriate StdTime Value (2099-01-01). Thanks in advance!
Please refer to the description for each layer's time range. e.g., "Mid Century" is 2050. You can ignore what comes out of the subset StdTime Value. Those values were automatically generated by the original data files metadata, which had issues.
Thanks for the link!
Here's a discussion from the Esri Community in case it's helpful: https://community.esri.com/t5/arcgis-living-atlas-questions/subsetting-u-s-climate-thresholds-data/m-p/1476495#M596. Apparently you can ignore the time values.
I'm running into the same thing.